Who created this?

Jaden Henderson. You can email him at jadenhenderson12@gmail.com The data was obtained from the official CDC case report system, but the risk estimator and overall trends page were not created by or endorsed by the CDC.

What purpose does this website serve?

I want to help people obtain a more concrete understanding of their personal COVID-19 risk with an intuitive interface, because I noticed that many online tools are only understandable to people who study statistics for a living. I also want to provide simple, understandable statistics about the ongoing spread of COVID-19.

How is the risk calculated?

Every death rate was calculated in advance from the private access CDC COVID-19 database. The predictions are likely overestimates because asymptomatic cases might not be detected and reported. This inherent selection bias limits the analyses of any health reports that attempt to quantify risk in populations.

    The demographic death rates are calculated as follows:

  1. The data is reduced to the most recent 3 months going back from 3/2/22. This date isn't extremely recent because the CDC gives doctors time to update the status of newer cases.
  2. The death rate is calculated for each demographic: sex, age, and race.
  3. The probability is converted to odds, and then multiplied by the risk factors of pre-existing conditions and vaccination status. The vaccination efficacy is determined from a separate CDC database.

    The area risk ratios are calculated as follows:

  1. Zip codes are mapped to FIPS codes using this database.
  2. The number of relevant cases is determined. If there are less than 1000 cases in the last 3 months, this area is considered invalid due to insufficient data.
  3. The death rate is determined, and this rate is divided by the death rate in the entire US. If it's below 1, the reciprocal is taken and the new rate is treated as a safety ratio.